Business
Nigeria could be affected by a decline in oil prices – IMF
ABUJA – An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visited Nigeria during November 13-26 to conduct discussions for the 2013 Article IV consultation.
The mission met with Finance Minister and Coordinator Minister of the Economy Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, senior government officials, members of the Legislature, and representatives of the private sector.
At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Gene Leon, the Fund’s mission chief and senior resident representative in Nigeria, issued the following statement:
“Nigeria’s economy has continued to perform strongly in 2013. Real GDP grew by 6.8 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (compared to third quarter 2012), supported by robust performances in agriculture, services, and trade. Oil theft/production losses have adversely impacted export receipts and government revenues, leading to a significant drawdown from the Excess Crude Account.
Inflation declined to 7.8 percent (end-September 2013) from 12 percent at end 2012, in part owing to lower food prices and monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The exchange rate has been stable, and the banking sector is well capitalized with low levels of non-performing loans.
“Although the outlook is positive, risks need to be managed. Growth is projected to increase to about 7 percent in 2014, while inflation should remain subdued in the single digits. Nigeria could be affected, however, by a decline in oil prices, the pace of recovery in global economic and financial conditions, capital outflows, continued losses in oil production, or increased security concerns. At the same time, the economy can manage such shocks given a relatively flexible exchange rate regime, improved financial crisis management capacity, and a stable banking system. But fiscal buffers are low and a sustained high rate of growth is needed to reduce unemployment, and poverty.
“Fiscal consolidation is progressing well, and the momentum needs to be preserved through the ongoing election cycle. Key public financial management reforms are underway, including the implementation of a Treasury Single Account (TSA) and integrated information management systems, but lower-than-budgeted oil revenues are impacting budgetary plans at Federal, State, and Local levels and highlighting the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers to manage oil revenue volatility. Moving toward a sustainable non-oil primary deficit path will require resolve in continuing fiscal consolidation, including through resisting procyclical election spending, mobilizing non-oil revenue, improving efficiency in the public sector, and strengthening transparency in oil sector governance.
“The current monetary stance is appropriate and should remain geared towards sustaining low inflation and a stable financial system. Managing liquidity in the banking system remains a priority, and will be aided by the implementation of the TSA and prudent fiscal management. Likewise, the CBN has maintained stability of the naira, containing inflation and facilitating business confidence. However, the continued importance of oil receipts and the magnitude of portfolio flows present potential vulnerabilities, and exchange rate flexibility may be a useful tool in the event of persistent pressures. Ongoing initiatives to strengthen the supervisory framework, including supervision of banking groups, should continue, and Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria’s activities phased out gradually.
“To promote inclusive growth and mitigate the impact of vulnerabilities, ongoing structural and institutional reforms should be pursued resolutely. The 20/20 Vision and the Transformation Agenda provide a framework for ongoing reforms, including the privatization of the generation and distribution of energy, initiatives to increase food security and viability of agriculture, and programs funded through the Universal Basic Education Commission to improve human capital development. In addition, access to financial services for small-and medium-size enterprises, which have been key in many countries to enabling all to benefit from growth, could be improved. Other initiatives to improve the business environment and investment promotion could support diversification across sectors, but should be underpinned mainly by improvements in productivity and competitiveness. Growth in the next decade will need to rely on the continued implementation of reforms to strengthen institutions, improve efficiency, and prioritize quality infrastructure investments.
“The mission would like to thank the authorities and technical staff for their excellent cooperation.”
Business
OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Quotas, Silent on UAE Pull-out
Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.
The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+.
The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations.
Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.
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“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said.
Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Remains
But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.
Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.
Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.
“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.
“Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting.
Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.
Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.
‘A Big Deal’
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE’s exist as “a big deal” for OPEC.
Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.
The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 — far above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.
ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is “accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy”.
There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.
AFP
Business
Shareholders Laud NGX Group at 65th AGM
Shareholders of Nigerian Exchange Group Plc (NGX Group) have commended the Board and Management for the Group’s performance and strategic direction, urging continued focus on growth and long-term value creation.
At the Group’s 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM), shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, alongside key resolutions including a final dividend of ₦2.00 per share, a one-for-three bonus share issue, and the corresponding increase in share capital. The re-election of Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Board of Directors, Dr. Okechukwu Itanyi, Independent Non-Executive Director and Mrs. Ojinika Olaghere, Independent Non-Executive Director reinforced continuity in governance and oversight.
They acknowledged the Group’s disciplined execution and its role in strengthening the Nigerian capital market, noting that recent developments reflect a more structured and better-regulated market environment.
Speaking during the meeting, the President, New Dimension Shareholders Association, Patrick Ajudua, commended the leadership of the Group for delivering a strong financial outcome, noting that the results reflect both improved market conditions and deliberate strategic execution. “The numbers speak to a business that is gaining strength and direction,” he said.
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Similarly, the Chairman of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Boniface Okezie, lauded the Group’s commitment to innovation and infrastructure development. “The market is becoming more forward-looking, supported by strong leadership at the Group level. Initiatives around market infrastructure and participation are yielding results, and this is positive for investors,” he noted.
Commenting during the AGM, Chairman of NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, appreciated shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed the Board’s commitment to sustainable value delivery. He said, “The progress recorded reflects the strength of the Group’s strategy and the performance of its operating businesses. As a Board, our responsibility is to ensure disciplined oversight, uphold strong governance standards, and position NGX Group to deliver sustainable, long-term value to shareholders.”
Temi Popoola, group managing director/chief executive officer, focused on execution priorities, noting that the Group is positioning for scale. He said, “This next phase is about deepening momentum. Our priority is to scale infrastructure, broaden participation, and unlock new pathways for capital formation.”
The meeting reflected strong shareholder confidence in NGX Group’s leadership, with the Group reaffirming its commitment to playing a central role in the evolution of Nigeria’s capital market while delivering sustained returns to investors.
Business
S’Leone Inks $225m Offshore Oil Deal with Nigeria’s Marginal Energy
Sierra Leone has announced the signing of a petroleum licence agreement with Nigeria‑based Marginal Energy Limited, granting the company offshore exploration and production rights as the government seeks to revive interest in its under‑explored upstream sector.
The licence, signed through the Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone (PDSL), covers offshore blocks G‑145, G‑146, G‑147, G‑160 and G‑161, spanning about 6,800 square kilometres, according to a government statement, a Reuters report said.
Marginal Energy, a Nigerian independent, has committed to a seismic and drilling programme with exploration spending expected to exceed $225 million.
Under the agreement, the state will hold a 10 percent carried interest in oil projects and 5 percent in gas during exploration and development, with an option to acquire an additional participating interest on a paid basis of up to 9 percent once production begins.
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The deal was signed at the Invest in African Energy conference in Paris, where Sierra Leone has been promoting offshore licensing opportunities to international investors, the report added.





